Risk Factors for Osteoporosis in Alaska Native Women: 

A Cross Sectional Survey

A Thesis

By

 

Joshua J. Filner


Presented to the Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine

Oregon Health Sciences University

in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of

Master of Public Health

April 2001

School of Medicine

Oregon Health Sciences University

 

____________________________

 

 


Certificate of Approval

 

____________________________

 


This is to certify that the M.P.H. thesis of

Joshua J. Filner

 

has been approved

 

 

 

 

Thomas Becker, M.D., Ph.D.

Committee Chair

 

 

Kelly Krohn, M.D.

Committee Member

 

 

Jodi Lapidus, Ph.D.

Committee Member


 

 

 

 

Table of Contents

List of Tables.................................................................................................................. iv

List of Figures................................................................................................................. v

Acknowledgements..................................................................................................... vii

Funding provided by:.................................................................................................. viii

Abstract............................................................................................................................ ix

Chapter 1 – Introduction............................................................................................... 1

Osteoporosis................................................................................................................. 1

Motivation....................................................................................................................... 4

Chapter 2 – Methods..................................................................................................... 7

Subject Recruitment...................................................................................................... 7

Data Collection Methods.............................................................................................. 8

Data Security and Quality Control......................................................................... 10

Definitions................................................................................................................ 10

Statistical Methods..................................................................................................... 11

Power Analysis........................................................................................................ 11

Univariate Analysis................................................................................................. 12

Regression Modeling............................................................................................. 12

Chapter 3 – Results..................................................................................................... 14

Chapter 4 – Discussion.............................................................................................. 25

Issues with Ultrasound Bone Density Technology................................................... 27

Limitations................................................................................................................... 28

Future Studies............................................................................................................. 30

Conclusions................................................................................................................. 31

References..................................................................................................................... 32

Appendix A – Consent Form..................................................................................... 35

Appendix B – The Study Questionnaire................................................................. 37

Appendix C – Methods Notes................................................................................... 39

Appendix D – Ultrasound Methods......................................................................... 43

Appendix E – Subject T-Score Report......................

List of Tables

Table 1-1 Selected Risk Factors for Osteoporosis According to the National Osteoporosis Foundation     4

Table 2-1 Estimated Sample Size Given Different Assumptions of Prevalence and Bone Density Cut Point for Alaska Natives vs. Non-Natives............................................................................... 12

Table 2-2 Candidate Predictor Variables and Variable Type, Tested for Use as Covariates in the Statistical Multivariate Analysis....................................................................................................... 13

Table 3-1 Distribution of Study Subjects by Study Site.............................................. 18

Table 3-2 Selected Characteristics of Study Participants......................................... 18

Table 3-3 Dietary Calcium Measures (mg/day) for All Subjects and for Alaska Natives          19

Table 3-4 Bone Density Characteristics and Pack Years of Smoking for Study Subjects       19

Table 3-5 Univariate Analysis of Subject Characteristics Tabulated by Abnormal vs. Normal Bone Density.......................................................................................................................................... 20

Table 3-6 Gamma Coefficients Among Selected Study Variables as an Evaluation of Relatedness of Candidate Predictor Variables in a Multivariate Analysis for Alaska Native Subjects Only     21

Table 3-7 Gamma Coefficients Among Selected Study Variables as an Evaluation of Relatedness of Candidate Predictor Variables in a Multivariate Analysis for All Study Subjects.... 22

Table 3-8 Predictors of Low Bone Density from a Multiple Logistic Regression Model for Alaska Native Subjects Only................................................................................................................... 23

Table 3-9 Predictors of Low Bone Density from a Multiple Logistic Regression Model for Non Native and Alaska Native Study Subjects........................................................................................ 23

Table 3-10 Low Bone Density by Age Group for Alaska Natives.............................. 24

Table A-1 Site Specific Recruitment Notes................................................................. 39

Table A-2 Elemental Calcium Content of Food Items per Serving Used in Calculations of Dietary Calcium Intake................................................................................................................................ 40

 

List of Figures

Figure 1-1 Normal Bone Density from Age 30 Years and Older................................. 2

Figure 1-2 W.H.O. Classification of T-scores................................................................ 3

Figure 1-3 Geographical Distribution of Alaska Natives by Tribal Grouping............. 6

Figure 1-4 Alaska Population: Age and Sex Distribution by Race.............................. 6

Figure 2-1 Locations of Study Sites in Alaska............................................................... 7

Figure A-1 Predicted Values vs. Cook’s Distance from the Final Logistic Regression Model, for All Natives.......................................................................................................................................... 41

Figure A-2 Predicted Values vs. Pearson Residuals from the Final Logistic Regression Model, for All Natives.......................................................................................................................................... 41

Figure A-3 Predicted Values vs. Cook’s Distance from a Logistic Regression Model for all Variables Shown in Table 3-9 and an Age-Smoking Interaction Term, for All Natives.......................... 42

Figure A-4 Predicted Values vs. Pearson Residuals from a Logistic Regression Model for all Variables in Shown in Table 3-9 and an Age-Smoking Interaction Term, for All Natives............. 42

Figure A-5 Ultrasound Quality Control Log for August 1999 ..................................... 44

Figure A-6 Ultrasound Quality Control Log for September 1999.............................. 45


Précis

Mitch Greenlick likes to say that a thesis should be a journey.  This thesis certainly has been a journey, and a circuitous one at that.  My first exposure to osteoporosis was about six years ago; I got a call while still working at the Reed College nuclear reactor.  I spent several months stuffing frozen dead mice into the reactor to measure calcium levels.  That experience ended my promising career as an animal researcher.

 A few years later, Kelly Krohn sent an e mail to all medical students looking for someone to go to Alaska and study osteoporosis.  I was still interested in osteoporosis and this project didn’t involve dead mice, so off I went.  Like any small student project, it was unfunded at the start.  Fortunately, Dr. Krohn and I were able to find enough funds to make the project a reality.

The original plan was that this would be a small summer research project.  I was to learn about field epidemiology, travel, and maybe get published in a scientific journal.  I got to visit some incredibly remote and beautiful places and meet a lot of wonderful people.  At the end of the summer I had some viable data. 

You can always collect more data.  There was also a great deal of interest by both the health care providers and the patients whom I saw.  The project kept growing and I returned to Alaska.  The final result is this document.  It is my sincere hope that in the end it will prove useful in guiding the development of osteoporosis prevention programs for Alaska Natives. 


Acknowledgements

 

            The solo research project in epidemiology is nearly extinct.  This project is no exception and I am extremely grateful to the many people who helped me.  I am unable to list everyone by name.  I apologize to anyone I have omitted.   

The nurses, health aides and clerical staff at all of the clinics deserve special recognition for their help in recruiting, finding space for me and making me welcome at the clinics. I am most indebted to the people in the communities I visited, for their hospitality and for participating in my study.

 

My Thesis Committee:

Thomas Becker, M.D., Ph.D., Kelly Krohn, M.D., Jodi Lapidus, Ph.D.

 

Logistics, Advice, and Mentorship:

Jane Kelly, M.D.

 

Food, Lodging, Hospitality, Alaska Lore, and General Support:

Donald, Kara, Kelly, and Lana Johnson, Adrienne Shipley

Proof reading and Editing:

Stephen G. Frantz, P.E., C.H.P.

Christopher Hoffman, M.S.

 

Encouragement, Proof reading, and General Tolerance:

Kristina Marie Rheaume

 

The Indian Health Service’s Alaska Diabetes Program Office Staff:

Tammy Brown, R.D., Joan Hastie, Anne-Marie Mayer, F.N.P., M.P.H., Anita Vogt, R.N.

 
Advice:

Kenneth Faulkner, Ph.D., Michael Garland, D.Sci.Rel., Cynthia Morris, Ph.D., M.P.H., Gary Sexton, Ph.D.

 

OHSU Bone and Mineral Research Unit:

Eric Orwoll, M.D., Shelia Orwoll

 

Barrow:

Sharon Conn, R.N., Robert Haight, M.D.

 

Kotzabue:

Connie Rakoski, Jeanne Reichert, R.N., Janice Shakels, M.D., Ann Swisher

 

St. Paul:

Clinic Staff


Alaska Native Medical Center:

Department of Family Medicine – Peter Mjos, M.D., Steven Vilter, M.D., Dr. Maria Freeman, M.D.

            Department of Internal Medicine – David Templin, M.D., David Barrett, M.D.

Department of Orthopedics – David Beck, M.D., Candice Clawson, M.D., William Pratt, M.D., R.J. Hall, M.D., Debbie Freudenthal, R.N

Department of Women’s Health - Neil Murphy, M.D., Stephanie Ecklund, M.D., Colleen Murphy, M.D., Pat Taylor, N.P.

 

Yukon Kuskaquim Health Corporation:

            Roger Johnson, M.D.

 

Kodiak Area Native Association:

Dr. Tom Selinger, M.D., Dr. Dave Udder, LT. Felix Santiago, R.N., B.S.N., U.S.P.H.S.

Sand Point Medical:

            Kathy, Marcy, Margaret, Terry, Ingrid

 

King Cove:

            Jonathan, Leslie, Elisabeth Smaha   

North Star Health Clinic (Seward):

            Annette Siemans, F.N.P., Ellen O’Brian, F.N.P.

Port Graham Clinic:

            Eleanor, Darlene

Tatitlek Clinic:

            Laurinda Vlsaoff

Chenga Bay Clinic:

            Cheryl Eleshansky

Nanwalek Clinic Staff:

            Effram

 

Funding provided by:

The OHSU Summer Medical Student Research Program (N.I.H.) (1998 and 1999)

The N.L. Tartar Trust (1999)

The Portland V.A. Research Foundation (1998)

Chugachmuit Native Corporation (1998, 1999)

North Slope Native Corporation (1999)

Maniilaq Native Corporation (1999)

Alaska Area Diabetes Program (1998, 1999)

Aleutian Pribilof Island Association  (1999)

Eastern Aleutian Tribes (1998)

The use of the Ultrasound Device in 1999:

Hologic, Inc., Waltham, MA


Abstract

Objective: To estimate the prevalence of risk factors for osteoporosis in Alaska Natives.

Methods: This study is a cross-sectional convenience sample of patients from 17 clinics in Alaska.  I interviewed subjects regarding dietary calcium, demographics, and risk factors for osteoporosis.  I measured subjects’ calcaneal bone density using quantitative ultrasound. 

Results:  I collected data from 452 women, 316 of whom were Alaska Natives.  Risk factors for osteoporosis were highly prevalent.  Many Alaska Natives were current smokers (45%), were former smokers (32%), and 45% had low bone density (t-score < -1.0).  Total dietary calcium intake was lower than recommended (median = 379 mg/day).  Both current (Odds Ratio (OR)=3.9, 95% Confidence Interval (95% C.I.)=1.8-8.4) and former smokers (OR=2.8, 95% C.I.=1.3-6.2) were significantly more likely to have low bone density than subjects who have never smoked.  Chronic users of oral steroids were also significantly more likely (OR=4.7, 95% C.I.=1.8-12.0) to have low bone density than non-users of oral steroids.

Conclusions:  Risk factors for low bone density and osteoporosis are prevalent in Alaska Native women.  The number of Alaska Native women at risk for osteoporosis will increase during the next decade due to the aging of this population.  A comprehensive prevention program to reduce the prevalence of modifiable risk factors in this population is warranted.


Chapter 1 – Introduction

           I examined the relationship between risk factors for low bone density and bone density measurements in Alaska Native women.  I implemented a cross-sectional survey to evaluate a convenience sample of Alaska Native and non-native women age 20 years and over. 

Osteoporosis

Osteoporosis is a disease in which the normal architecture of bone is disrupted and the matrix of bone is demineralized.  In a healthy adult, two cell types with opposite functions are active in bone remodeling.  Osteoblasts synthesize the organic components of the bone matrix; over time this matrix mineralizes.  Osteoclasts, by contrast, break down or resorb bone (Junqueira, 1995).  When this process is under normal homeostatic control, the amount of bone resorbed is roughly equal to the amount of new matrix formed.  In osteoporosis, this balance is disturbed and osteoclasts resorb bone faster than osteoblasts can replace it.  This disruption of remodeling eventually leads to lower bone mass and a change in bone architecture.  These abnormalities reduce bone strength.  As a result, people with osteoporosis are at increased risk for fractures.  Most medical therapies for osteoporosis attempt to restore the balance between osteoclasts and osteoblasts by inhibiting the osteoclasts.  More detailed discussions of the basic science of bone metabolism can be found in other sources (Favus, 1996; Riggs, 1995).

Osteoporosis is divided into two categories, primary and secondary (Rosenberg, 1994).  Primary osteoporosis is associated with aging and is more prevalent with menopause.  Secondary osteoporosis is caused by a factor other than age or menopause.  Causes of secondary osteoporosis include Cushing’s syndrome, type 1 diabetes, alcohol, lithium, anticonvulsants, malabsorption, and multiple myeloma.

Bone density changes with age in a characteristic pattern (Figure 1-1).  Bone progressively increases in density from a state of minimal ossification in a newborn infant to peak density at approximately thirty years of age.  After age thirty, bone mass begins a slow and steady decline until menopause.  After menopause, bone mass declines rapidly (Hansen, 1995).  This postmenopausal bone loss is the reason why osteoporosis prevention efforts are often focused on women at or just past menopause.

Figure 1-1 Normal Bone Density from Age 30 Years and Older
 

 
Osteoporosis is technically a histologic diagnosis made using a biopsy sample.  A biopsy can detect both a decrease in ossification and interruptions in the normal cross-linked structural network of bone (Recker, 1996).  In practice, biopsy is very rarely used to make a diagnosis; various bone density measurement techniques are used instead.  Bone density measurements are non-invasive and are almost as accurate in detecting osteoporosis.


   Bone density measurements are interpreted in three ways, as g/cm2, as a t-score and as a z-score.  A t-score is the number of standard deviations from the mean density of young, normal, sex-matched individuals.  A z-score is the number of standard deviations from the mean density for sex and age-matched individuals.  The World Health Organization (W.H.O.) developed the most widely accepted criteria for classifying t-scores based on measurements taken at the femoral neck or lumbar spine (Kanis, 1994).  Under W.H.O. criteria (Figure 1-2), a t-score greater than  ‑1.0 is normal.  A t-score between ‑1.0 and ‑2.5 is classified as osteopenia, or low bone density.  A score of less than ‑2.5 is classified as osteoporosis.  These criteria apply only to measurements taken at the femoral neck or lumbar spine.

  

 


Text Box: Osteoporosis
Normal

 

 


The major health consequence of osteoporosis is increased risk of fracture.  A consensus panel study estimated that 90% of hip and spine fractures in elderly white women are attributable to osteoporosis (Melton, 1997).  Hip and vertebral compression fractures are the most important morbidities associated with osteoporosis, but many other types of fractures are associated with this disease.  A national study using Medicare data found 5.3 discharges per 10,000 person-years with a diagnosis of vertebral fracture for 65 year olds, and 47.8 discharges per 10,000 person-years with a diagnosis of vertebral fracture for 90 year olds (Jacobsen, 1992).  Hip and vertebral fractures have enormous health and financial costs.  One study estimated the annual U.S. expenditures to treat osteoporotic fractures to be $13.8 billion in 1995 (Ray, 1997).  Hip fractures are associated with significant mortality.  One study found 8% mortality at 3 months post fracture (Cree, 2000).  A nested case control study found 20% mortality at one year for hip fracture patients at least 70 years old, with a crude relative risk of 2.4 compared to age matched controls (Wolinsky, 1997).  Hip fracture patients were also hospitalized or institutionalized more frequently after their fracture than age-matched controls.  In addition to traditional outcome measures, all of these fractures can affect quality of life, activities of daily living, and body image.

Age-associated bone degeneration does not affect all women equally.  The list of known and putative risk factors for osteoporosis is quite long.  Risk factors identified by the National Osteoporosis Foundation are shown in Table 1-1 (National Osteoporosis Foundation, 1999).  Other putative risk factors for osteoporosis are under investigation (Melton, 1996).  More risk factors are likely to be identified in the future.

<="502850833">Table 1-1 Selected Risk Factors for Osteoporosis According to the National Osteoporosis Foundation

Non-modifiable Risk Factors
Potentially Modifiable Risk Factors

History of Fracture as an Adult

Current Cigarette Smoking

History of Fracture as an Adult in a First Degree Relative

Low Body Weight (<127 lb.)

Caucasian Race

Estrogen Deficiency:

-Early Menopause or Bilateral Oophorectomy

-Premenopausal Amenorrhea (>1 year)

Female Sex

Lifelong Low Calcium Intake

Dementia

Alcoholism

Poor Health/Fragility

Recurrent Falls

 

Inadequate Physical Activity

 

Impaired Eyesight Despite Adequate Correction

Motivation

   The term “Alaska Natives” includes three culturally, linguistically and genetically distinct groups: Eskimos, Indians, and Aleuts.  These groups traditionally inhabited different regions of Alaska (Figure 1-3).  Within each of these broad ethnic classifications exists substantial linguistic and cultural heterogeneity.  The diversity of indigenous Alaskan people limits the value in attempting to make broad generalizations.  Yet studying each subgroup also presents challenges because of the large number of subgroups and small population in some of the subgroups.

Health care resources for Alaska Natives have traditionally focused on treating acute medical conditions.  Infectious diseases receive a high level of attention in Alaska Natives.  This is appropriate because of their high incidence.  Botulism, for example, has an incidence of 10.7 per 100,000 person-years in Alaska, substantially higher than in any other state  (Beller, 1998).  

Chronic diseases are beginning to receive more attention because of the realization of their increasing impact on Alaskan Natives.  More Alaska Natives are living to the older ages associated with many chronic diseases.  Osteoporosis is one such chronic disease that is likely to be increasing among Alaskan Natives, but few reports have been published on the subject.  A search of MEDLINE using Alaska Natives and osteoporosis or bone density as keywords of records from 1965 through 1999 yields less than 20 articles.  Specialized references also yield a small number of articles (Fortuine, 1993).

Some evidence suggests that Alaska Natives may have lower bone density than Caucasians.  A study published by the International Biological Perspective found that Eskimo people had lower bone density than Caucasians and that the difference between Eskimos and Caucasians was more pronounced in the elderly (Mazess, 1978).  A small study by the same investigator found that Aleutian Islanders also have lower bone density than Caucasians (Mazess, 1985).

A large proportion of Alaska Natives in the baby boom generation is nearing menopause.  Figure 1-4 shows the age structure of the population of the state of Alaska by race.  Since osteoporosis is primarily a disease of post-menopausal women, osteoporosis will become an important issue in Alaska Native health care with the increase in life expectancy of Alaska Natives.  Information about the distribution of risk factors in this population will be of use for planning prevention and intervention programs.  My goal for this project was to provide an estimate of the prevalence of low bone density and the risk factors for low bone density in Alaska Natives.

Chapter 2 – Methods

 

This study is a cross sectional prevalence survey of Alaska Natives.  I selected a convenience sample of patients at 12 sites in Alaska and collected data in Alaska from July 7 to Aug. 31, 1998 and Aug. 4 to Sept. 21, 1999.

Subject Recruitment

Text Box: Figure 2-1 Locations of Study Sites in Alaska

I recruited subjects at a total of 17 Indian Health Service (I.H.S.) and tribal clinics in 12 municipalities (Figure 2-1).  Clinics were selected as a convenience sample, rather than a random sample.  I chose clinics using the following criteria: 1) approval of local tribal authority, 2) willingness of at least one health care provider to follow-up on patients at that clinic, 3) the availability of space at the clinic for subject interviews, and 4) the costs associated with the clinic visit were within the study budget.  I attempted to maximize the geographical diversity of study sites as permitted by the site selection criteria.  I recruited subjects among patients receiving care from the following clinics: four clinics at the Alaska Native Medical Center (ANMC) (Family  Medicine, Diabetes, Internal Medicine, Orthopedic, and Women’s Health) and clinics at King Cove, Kodiak, Sand Point, Tatitlek, Nanwalek, Port Graham, St. Paul, Seward, Chenega Bay, Barrow, Bethel, and Kotzabue.  I also recruited subjects among the Alaska Native and non-native staff of each clinic.  Staff members were recruited either by e mail (ANMC) or by word of mouth.

I included only females who were at least 20 years old.  Potential subjects were excluded if they failed to complete the study protocol or if no valid density measurement could be taken.  Clinic staff conducted the initial recruitment of subjects, either face to face or by telephone.  At one village, the local radio station broadcast a public service announcement to recruit subjects.  All recruiters explained that participation in the study was entirely voluntary and there was no cost to the subject.  No record was kept of the number of potential subjects who declined to participate at initial recruitment.  When subjects presented for the study interview, I again explained the voluntary nature of the study and offered to answer questions about the study.  I presented subjects still willing to participate in the study with a consent form (Appendix A).  For those who refused to participate at the interview stage, I recorded the reason for refusal.

Data Collection Methods

After obtaining consent, I interviewed all of the subjects using a closed response questionnaire (Appendix B) at 15 of the clinics.  At two clinics (Port Graham and Nanwalek) the subjects completed the questionnaire themselves. 

During the interview, I entered the subject responses directly into database software (Epi Info 6.04b, CDC, Atlanta, GA) using a portable computer.  Due to time constraints, subjects in Nanwalek and in Port Graham filled out paper versions of the questionnaire while waiting to see me.  In these cases, I verified the answers for a sample of questions during the interview.  These paper questionnaires were entered into the database at a later time.  I obtained questionnaire data before the bone density measurement was taken.

I used the questionnaire data to estimate dietary calcium.  During the interview, I asked each subject how many servings per week in the last year on average they ate a given food item.  Estimating a serving size for each food I determined the amount of calcium per serving from tables of nutrient values (Appendix C).  I used these values to calculate calcium intake.  The calcium measures are described in the definitions section of this chapter.

I measured calcaneal bone density using a Sahara Clinical Bone Sonometer (Hologic, Inc., Waltham, MA).  I followed the recommendations of the manufacturer for the use of this device (Appendix D).  The right calcaneus was measured unless the subject had a history of any injury to the right foot or ankle (except sprains, bunions, or fracture of the metatarsals or phalanges).  If the first measurement was not satisfactory, I repeated the measurement up to four times.  If none of these repeated measurements passed an automated reliability test, the mean of the multiple measurements was used as that subject’s bone density for the statistical analysis.  In some cases no valid measurement was obtained from the subject; these subjects were excluded from the analysis (n = 6).  At the end of the study visit, I provided the subjects with reports of their density results (Appendix E) and encouraged them to discuss the results with their health-care provider.

I completed a standard Indian Health Service Form 803 ambulatory encounter record for every study visit.  This record included the subject’s t-score, estimated bone density, broadband ultrasound attenuation, speed of sound through bone, and appropriate notations to aid the interpretation of the results.  Records completed in 1999 were coded as a telephone visit to prevent inadvertent billing for participation in the study by the hospital.  My supervising physician at each clinic read and signed the encounter records.  I placed the completed encounter record in the subject’s medical chart along with a photocopy of the consent form.

Data Security and Quality Control

I verified the questionnaire responses by comparing selected response variables with the data in individual electronic medical records.  Records for most subjects were available via direct dial-up access to the computer system at the Alaska Native Medical Center.  I determined from the medication record which subjects were taking the following drugs: alendronate, etidronate, estrogen, estrogen/progesterone mixtures, calcium supplements, corticosteroids, calcitonin, raloxefene, tamoxifen, phenobarbital, phenytoin and carbamazepine.  Birth date and diabetes diagnosis were also confirmed by electronic medical record. 

I encrypted data files containing identifying information during the course of this study when not in use.  Identifying information such as name and medical record number were stripped from the electronic data files at the end of the data analysis to prevent any accidental disclosure of confidential information.

Definitions

The following definitions were used for the purposes of this study:

Alaska Native: I considered any person who self-identified as an Alaska Native or American Indian.  This included American Indians living in Alaska but originally from other states.

Clinic staff: I defined clinic staff as any person who worked at the clinic or hospital, including cleaning and kitchen staff. 

Salpingo-oophorectomy: I considered a subject to have had a salpingo-oophorectomy if she stated 1) that both of her ovaries were removed, 2) that one ovary was removed, or 3) hysterectomy had been performed but the subject was uncertain if her ovaries were still intact.

Calcium Supplement: A calcium supplement was any dietary supplement containing calcium.  This included multivitamins containing calcium.

Diabetic: I considered any person who identified herself as a diabetic to be a diabetic.  Gestational diabetes mellitus and insulin resistance were not considered diabetes for this study.  Subject diabetes status was confirmed as part of the review of the electronic medical record.

Menopause: I considered any woman who stated that she had started or completed menopause to have started menopause.  I also considered any woman who stated she had surgical menopause to have started menopause.

            Total Daily Dietary Calcium: I multiplied the number of servings per week of each food by the amount of calcium per serving of that food.  I summed the values from all foods and divided by seven.

Total Daily Dairy Calcium: I multiplied the number of servings per week of each dairy food by the amount of calcium per serving of that food.  I summed the values from all foods and divided by seven.

Total Daily Calcium from Supplements: I multiplied the number of days per week supplements were used by the dose of calcium and divided by seven.

Total Daily Calcium Intake: The sum of total dietary calcium and daily calcium from supplements.  This was the primary calcium measure used in the statistical analysis.

Statistical Methods

Power Analysis

I performed an estimated power analysis using an estimated prevalence of osteopenia in each group.  The minimum odds ratio to be detected was assumed to be 2.0, alpha was set to 0.05 and power (1-Beta) to 90% (see Table 2-1).  Calculations were performed using the method described by Fleiss (1981) using Epi Info.  The comparison group consists of non-native people served by the Indian Health Service and/or the native corporations.  These health care systems serve relatively few non-natives.  The non-natives they do serve are mostly clinic staff and their dependants.  Given the small number of non-native people served by the I.H.S. and the focus of this investigation on Alaska Natives, I assumed that 1/3 of the subjects would be non-natives.  These results led to the choice of a t-score of –1.0 as the cutoff for a normal value.

<="502850834"><="475694268">Table 2-1 Estimated Sample Size Given Different Assumptions of Prevalence and Bone Density Cut Point for Alaska Natives vs. Non-Natives

Criteria

# Non-Native:

#Native

Native

Prevalence

Non-Native Prevalence

Estimated # Native

Estimated #Non-Native

Total Subjects

t-score <= -

1:2

0.44

0.21

129

64

193

t-score <= -2.5

low prevalence

1:2

0.10

0.005

85

170

255

t-score <= -2.5 high prevalence

1:2

0.10

0.05

368

735

1,103

Alpha = 0.05, Beta = 0.10, Minimum Detectable Odds Ratio Change = 2.0

Univariate Analysis

I used SPSS 9.0 (SPSS, Inc., Chicago, IL) and Excel 97 (Microsoft, Inc., Redmond, WA) to perform the statistical analysis.  The major variables of interest are shown in Table 2-2.  Bone density was dichotomized into low density (t-score <-1.0) and high density (t-score ³ -1.0).  Dichotomous variables were examined by cross tabulation with normal vs. abnormal bone density.  Likelihood ratio Chi square statistics and odds ratios (OR’s) were calculated for each of these variables.  For continuous variables I generated descriptive statistics and histograms.  In some cases I assessed the normality of continuous variables with a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test.

Regression Modeling

I developed a set of logistic regression models that dichotomized subjects by bone density to high density and low density using the same criteria used in the univariate analysis.  I used a method, modeled after that of Hosmer and Lemeshow (1989), to select variables for the multivariate analysis.  The univariate likelihood ratio Chi squared results were used to screen potential variables in the model.  The p-value for these tests had to be 0.25 or less unless the variable was known from other sources to have a relationship with osteoporosis.  These potential variables are shown in Table 2-3.  I used the gamma statistic to measure the relatedness of binary variables with one another.  Interactions were tested using both forward and backward stepwise likelihood ratio procedures.  I assessed the fit of the model by plotting the predicted probabilities from the final models against Cook’s distance and separately plotting predicted probabilities against the Pearson residuals (Appendix C).  Three individual cases which were outliers on these plots and which changed the estimated odds ratios of the model were removed from the final analysis.  I also used the Hosmer and Lemeshow goodness of fit test and Nagelkerke R2 as formal tests of goodness of fit.  

Table 2-2 Candidate Predictor Variables and Variable Type, Tested for Use as Covariates in the Statistical Multivariate Analysis

Predictor

Variable Type (units)

Dietary Calcium Intake from Dairy Products and Supplements

Continuous (mg/day)

Calcium Supplementation

Dichotomous

Clinic Staff vs. Non-Staff

Dichotomous

Native vs. Non-Native

Dichotomous

History of Ankle Fracture

Dichotomous

Physical Exercise of at Least Twenty Minutes per Day 3x per Week

Dichotomous

Oral Corticosteroids for at Least Six Weeks at Any Time in Their Life

Dichotomous

Ever having Smoked Tobacco, Currently Smoking Tobacco,

Not ever Smoking Tobacco

Dichotomous

Cigarette Consumption History

Continuous (packs/day and pack years)

The use of Hormone Replacement Therapy

Dichotomous

The Use of Oral Contraceptive Pills

Dichotomous

Presence of Diabetes

Dichotomous

Anchorage vs. Other Sites

Dichotomous

Age at Time of Study Measurement

Continuous (years)


Chapter 3 – Results

 

Subjects took between 15-60 minutes to complete the study interview and density measurement.  I interviewed and measured a total of 483 potential subjects, of those 452 (94%) met all inclusion criteria and provided complete data for the purposes of statistical analysis.  The geographical distribution of study subjects is shown in Table 3-1.  Sixteen persons declined to participate in the study.  Three persons declined because they felt they were too young to have a bone density measurement, three others declined because they did not want to answer study questions, three did not want to find out if they had cancer, and two did not wish to potentially lose their insurance coverage.  The remaining five declined to give a reason for not participating in the study. 

I reviewed the medical records of 401 (89%) subjects approximately nine months after the last study visit.  Two persons were deceased at the time of the review.  There were 17 errors in birth dates found in the 401 birth dates reviewed.  I personally entered all of the data, so my error “rate” per keystroke, at 6 keystrokes per birth date, was 0.8%.  Only five of these erroneous birth dates differed by a year or more from the correct birth date.  Three subjects were taking alendronate, four tamoxifen, and one calcitonin.  The medical record agreed closely with the questionnaire data.  The study questionnaire identified diabetics correctly 98% of the time, oral steroid users 93% of the time, and hormone replacement therapy users 82% of the time.

The primary study analysis considered risk factors for low bone mass in Alaska Natives (N=316).  Risk factors for osteoporosis were highly prevalent in the study population (Table 3-2).  Smokers made up 35% of all subjects and 45% of Alaska Natives.  Nearly one in five Alaska Natives reported having broken a foot or ankle at some time in their lives.  Ex-smokers comprised 30% of all subjects and 32% of Alaska Natives.  The median tobacco consumption history was eight pack-years.  Most Alaska Native participants (60%) had started menopause and 9% had taken at least one six week course of oral steroids during their lifetimes.  Some protective factors were also prevalent in the study population.  Approximately one third of the Alaska Natives were taking hormone replacement therapy, and 49% of Alaska Natives and 61% of non-natives stated that they exercised at least three times a week for 20 minutes or more per day. 

The median total calcium intake of Alaska Natives was 379 mg/day, and 63% of Alaska Natives reported that they took some type of dietary supplement containing calcium.  The calcium consumption of all subjects combined was higher (Table 3-3) than that of Alaska Natives alone.  This was due to much higher calcium consumption by non-native study participants.

Low bone density was highly prevalent in the study population, as 45% of Alaska Natives and 22% of non-natives had a t-score less than ‑1.0.  The mean t-score of Alaska Natives was ‑0.9 compared to an average t-score of +0.2 for non-natives (Table 3-4).

Many of the risk factors were significantly associated with low bone density in the univariate analysis.  Crude odds ratios for Alaska Natives and for all subjects are shown in Table 3-5.  Fracture history, steroid use, menopause, hormone replacement therapy, current smoking, former smoking, and age were all positively associated with low bone density for Alaska Natives.  Exercising three times per week for at least 20 minutes was negatively associated with low bone mass.  Variables, which did not pass the screening criteria for the multivariate model, were 1) clinic staff vs. non-staff, 2) diabetics vs. non-diabetics, and 3) Anchorage vs. all other sites. 

Gamma coefficients for selected variables are shown in Tables 3-6 and 3-7.  Diabetes was strongly associated with the subject having started menopause (gamma = 0.68).  The use of hormone replacement therapy was also strongly related with menopausal status (gamma=1.0).  No other variables were strongly related with one another.

Several risk factors were significantly associated with low bone density in the multivariate model (Table 3-8).  In the analysis of Alaska Natives, both current smokers and former smokers were more likely to have low bone density compared to never smokers.  Oral steroid use was also associated with low bone density (Table 3-8). 

The multivariate analysis of all subjects combined showed similar results (Table 3-9).  Smoking history and oral steroid use were less strongly associated with low bone density than in univariate models.  A composite variable created by combining, history of hip, ankle, or foot fracture, and history of osteoporosis diagnosis, was significantly associated with low bone density.  Alaska Natives were almost twice as likely to have low bone density than non-natives (Table 3-9). 

I eliminated several variables from the multivariate analysis during statistical screening.  Variables were screened to test a theoretical relationship between the variable and bone density, or to test for a confounding effect.  Diabetes was evaluated because several of the field visits were made with the diabetes team.  As a result, diabetics were over represented in the study.  Diabetic status did not meet the statistical screening criteria for inclusion in the model; I concluded it was not an important source of confounding and eliminated it from the multivariate analysis.  Two other variables were eliminated from the multivariate analysis by this process, being a health care worker versus all other subjects, and being a subject in Anchorage versus other sites.  Hip fracture, foot fracture, and history of osteoporosis diagnosis were rare enough events that I chose to combine them into a single variable in the primary analysis.

The variables that passed the initial screening were included in the initial multivariate logistic regression models.  I included several theoretically important variables in the final multivariate model even though they were not statistically significant in that model.  Hormone replacement therapy use and menopause were highly related.  When two strongly correlated variables are included in the same multivariate statistical model they will often dilute each other’s association with the dependant variable.  Normally two variables that are this strongly correlated would not be placed in the same multivariate model.  In this case, they are both important factors in explaining the risk for low bone density.  Hormone replacement is positively associated with low bone mass in the univariate analysis.  This is true in the multivariate analysis until age and/or menopause are added to the model.

The results from the final logistic regression model for Alaska Natives are shown in Table 3-8.  All of the variables in this model were tested for interactions with age.  The age-steroid interaction was significant.  The age-smoking and age-history of fracture interactions approached significance.  I performed fit diagnostics as described in the methods section, on a model with all of the variables in Table 3-9, and the age-steroid interaction term.  I removed three cases that were highly influential.  With the removal of these cases, the age-steroid term became unambiguously non-significant (p=0.4), and the age-smoking term became statistically significant.  Goodness of fit diagnostics with the age-smoking term was not as satisfactory.  The Pearson residuals demonstrated greater variance (Figure A-4).  I decided that the best fit and most interpretable model was a model without interaction terms.  It is likely that effect modification exists between two or more variables in the model but the study sample was too small to draw meaningful conclusions about the existence of specific relationships.  Estimated odds ratios calculated using the logistic regression model shown in Table 3-8 are shown in Table 3-10.

 

Table 3-1 Distribution of Study Subjects by Study Site

Site

Number of Subjects

Percent of Total Subjects

Population1

Percent Population Sampled

Anchorage

184

41

258,752

0.07

Barrow

38

8

4,397

0.86

Bethel

3

1

5,463

0.05

Chenega Bay

10

2

35

29

King Cove

7

2

703

1

Kodiak

23

5

6,859

0.34

Kotzabue

21

5

2,964

0.71

Nanwalek

20

4

180

11

Port Graham

31

7

190

16

Sand Point

18

4

830

2

Seward

64

14

3,040

2

St. Paul

19

4

761

3

Tatitlek

14

3

110

13

Total

452

100

284,284

0.16

 

1Estimate from Williams, 1999

 

Table 3-2 Selected Characteristics of Study Participants

Characteristic

All Subjects

N=452

Native

N=316

Non-Native

N=136

P-value1

Current Smokers

35.2%

45.3%

11.8%

<0.001*

Former Smokers

30.3%

31.6%

27.2%

0.343

History of Ankle or Foot fracture

18.4%

19.0%

16.9%

0.599

Oral Steroid Use

8.2%

8.9%

7.4%

0.592

Started Menopause

58.9%

60.4%

55.2%

0.295

Hormone Replacement Therapy

33.8%

31.3%

39.7%

0.086

Exercise 3x/week>=20min

52.8%

49.4%

61.0%

0.022*

Diabetic

10.0%

10.4%

5.9%

0.108

History of Hip Fracture

1.5%

1.9%

0.7%

0.325

Clinic Staff

35.2%

20.3%

69.9%

<0.001*

Low Bone Density

30.3%

45.3%

22.1%

<0.001*

Calcium Supplement Use

58.0%

56.0%

62.5%

0.198

History of Hip, or Ankle or Foot Fracture, or Osteoporosis Diagnosis

24.6%

26.0%

21.3%

0.290

*Significant for p<0.05

1Native Compared with Non-native Using Likelihood Ratio Chi Square Test

 


Table 3-3 Dietary Calcium Measures (mg/day) for All Subjects and for Alaska Natives 

Calcium Measure

All Subjects

Mean

Median

(25-75 percentile)

Alaska Natives

Mean

Median

(25-75 percentile)

p-value1

Dairy Calcium

231

140

(39-359)

185

107

(24-278)

<0.001*

Total Dietary Calcium

360

272

(110-529)

306

198

(94-441)

<0.001*

Calcium from Supplements